Is Bigger really Better? Which schools are more financially stable?

According to a recent article from the Hechinger Report, colleges have been closing at a rate of one per week. That's astounding!

Is this one reason why larger schools, state and private, experienced an increase in applications? Or, did the larger schools have more marketing and better methods to attract graduating seniors? Perhaps there are other factors as well, things more anecdotal then evidentiary. One thing is clear, there has been a consistent decline in enrollment rates since 2010 and the COVID pandemic did not help.

This report (also from Hechinger) in 2010 highlights financial warning signs for higher education. "Nearly 600 two- and four-year institutions saw their incoming fall enrollments drop more than a quarter" between 2010 and 2018. Then, COVID hit. The declines continued and the jury is still out on the 2023-2024 AY, but we know there is a cliff on the horizon due to low birth rates for the incoming freshman class (2005/2006).

As a parent of a soon-to-be college freshman, is there anything that can be done to verify the financial stability of your kid's dream school? Perhaps there are clues if one looks at the Wells College story. It is clear from the actions taken by administration that Wells College was not financially secure and people knew it. Administration re-zoned the college land and I can only assume that this was through a process within the municipality. Most rezoning from single to multi-use requires some level of approval at the town or county level and it would not be unreasonable to see something like this in local newspapers or require a public hearing. An inquiry into the local town newspaper or online news source will pull up recent requests by the dream school and may provide insight into financial standing.

Next, the Board of Trustees at Wells College signed off on the rezoning as well as the reported "transfer out" protocols that took place ahead of the closure announcement. Many articles I read for this blog indicated that administrators directed school personnel, academic advisors perhaps, to create transfer plans for current students. While many students are being picked up by nearby Mahattanville University it is unclear how many were provided guidance or a plan prior to the closure announcement. Personally, I find it unfathomable that academic advisors, and most likely faculty, did not catch wind of the pending doom based on transfer discussions.

Additionally, alumni were kept out of the loop of the financial status. Wells College was founded by the founder of Wells Fargo as a private, seminary, then an all-women's school until 2004 when it became co-ed, liberal arts college. During this time, a long list of alumni and prominent individuals like Laura Nader, the first tenured female faculty in Anthropology at UC-Berkeley, and Mary Beckerle, famed cell biologist working on Ewings Sarcoma at the University of Utah Huntsman Center. While the college addresses this on their website, many wonder if money could have been raised to keep the doors open at Wells. When visiting campuses, check to see if there are announcements of endowments received, valuable (think money) partnerships with prominent businesses or individuals or has the school received any grants, state/federal funding for programs or other contributions where donors would be harmed by the school closing.

Finally, schools with accreditation are likely to indicate financial pitfalls earlier than those without accrediting bodies. Wells College had been on probation until early 2021 when the Middle States Commission on Higher Education reinstated prior status after extensive work by the institution. Part of the reason for probation? "The primary areas that were addressed were related to having adequate financial and human resources to sustain operations, budget planning and institutional improvement" according to the report. Ultimately, larger schools, state or public, are less likely to close compare to the smaller, private schools. Larger schools receive greater sums of money from wealthy alumni or community donors and can pay competitive salaries, thus maintaining a robust faculty and administration for public recognition and prominent reputation. However, schools serving niche markets like aviation or culinary are likely to merge with other schools before closing and leaving students in a lurch.

My ultimate recommendation when investigating schools? Pick up the local newspaper, review the Board of Trustee meeting notes, search the school website for accreditation seals/status and pay attention to the marketing surrounding the school in the last year. All of this is public information and easily accessible online or when visiting the school, talk to the students and locals in the city or town. Not only will you get an idea of the stability of the school, but it's good to learn the culture of the area.

Need assistance with researching colleges and programs for your soon-to-be freshman? Drop me a note or fill out the contact sheet to set up a free consultation.

My email: tiffany@aspeneducationalplanning.com

Still questioning the value of a college degree?

If you are like many, the value of a college degree has become debatable in today's economy. With headlines like "college graduates are underemployed" or "50% of college graduates cannot pay their student loans," it does beg the question: is college worth it?

The answer is not a clear 'yes' or 'no.' Instead, it requires additional questions of the studies. For example, were those asked recent graduates? If yes, well, I am not surprised many recent graduates are having a hard time finding work. The unemployment rate for April 2024 was only 3.9%. The U.S. has experienced historic lows in unemployment for the last several years. The last peak was 14.9% in April 2020 - right after the nation shut down for COVID-19. In January 2022, we were still only at 4% of Americans in the unemployed category. This means there are few vacancies and even fewer vacancies for positions requiring a college degree. People who need to work are working...

Next, how many college graduates do not have student loans? Obviously the data is skewed if only graduates with student loan debt in underemployed statuses are unable to pay their loans. Without seeing the dataset, I am shocked the number is not greater than 50% given the low unemployment rate. If those who do not have student load debt were included in the numbers of underemployed graduates and they are recent (say last three years), then we can have a conversation. However, if college grads without student loan debt are not in the mix, the data presented are overstated. The conversation is more about the economy broadly, than individually.

In other words, the United States is not growing. Companies are not expanding and creating more jobs. Instead, we are treading water which puts attending college in question for many and rightfully so...higher education is a huge investment. This is a great time for high school juniors and seniors to take advantage of dual-enrollment programs through their high school. Programs that fill in-demand positions and provide work experience may be more beneficial than heading to college right away. Another option is to attend a two-year college and focus on general education requirements.

With the high application rates for 2024 graduates and increased selectivity (not to mention the FAFSA debacle), many students are still deciding whether to attend a school, and which one, in fall 2024. If you are in the bucket, I highly recommend focusing on completing general education courses or attaining a certification to enter the work force until the economy decides if it is going to grow. A stagnant economy is better than a declining one, however, something has to give. For 2024 high school graduates, this provides an opportunity to do some investigating in future careers.

Take a look at the Bureau of Labor and Statistics website. All kinds of data is available on hot jobs for 2024 as well as projections for in-demand jobs through 2032. When evaluating the cost/benefit of a college degree, be sure to consider if the job(s) connected to the degree will be relevant in four years. Additonally, will the degree ensure a salary comensurate with the cost of the education (not to mention meet cost of living)? If unsure, re-evaluate the program, credential or degree. This is a time and financial commitment! Interdisciplinary programs or credentials demonstrating leadership, critical thinking and attention to detail can be used for a wide variety of positions and could the best option besides entering the work force.

Would you like to discuss your options? I'd love to chat with you! Send me a contact request through the website or we can set up an appointment for a consultation.

College Majors Disrupted

This article draws from the expertise of Jeff Selingo who is a best-selling author on the college admissions process as well as a frequent contributor to the New York Times and other news outlets. Recently, Jeff wrote an article touching on the changing landscape of college majors.

"More than one-third of the top 20 skills requested for the average job in the U.S. have changed since 2016." (Selingo) Did you know that?

What does this mean for the class of 2025? As we are struggling through the latest admissions debacle, the class of 2025 is waiting in the wings and I have a few recommendations:

First, when credible admissions data is finally released in July/August 2024, take some time to look at the colleges who did not have higher acceptance rates. In my cursory review this morning, I will hedge a bet that the top 20 schools in the U.S. will report higher than normal applications and lower than normal acceptance rates. Seems logically sound, but where do the students who were not offered admission end up going?

Students who applied to reach and safety schools may have decided to attend a college that was not originally in their plan. This may be in part due to the botched FAFSA and delay in sending financial data to their top schools or it may be the result of a change in majors and the job-market.

After reviewing the data for the acceptance rates and finding some patterns for higher admittance programs, take a look at the college majors. The job market is changing and employers are looking for skills that may not have been available five years ago. This means colleges and universities need to be agile and accommodating to meet workplace demands. Subsequently, smaller schools may have an advantage in this area where an older program is closed to make room for a new opportunity. Two disciplines come to mind: education and the ever-growing field of Sports and Health/Nutrition Science programs. From certificate or credentialing at two-year schools to full-fledged doctoral programs, this is a growing market with demand for expertise. College majors are in the middle of a disruption...related to workplace demand.

Finally, do some investigative work on career and work force education programs. The trades are underemployed right now and demand is high for skilled workers. From entry-level careers in union-sponsored programs (electrician, welding, HVAC and plumbing) to advanced credentialing in robotics, semi-conductor or molding programs...these high paying jobs are recruiting high school graduates to replace their retiring population. Two-year colleges are partnering to with local manufacturers to develop programs specifically to train new employees with the cost to student little to nothing - just a guaranteed job and requirement to work for a certain number of years. Who wouldn't want a guaranteed paycheck in today's market? And...one that is higher than previous years? Learn more here.

Look for an update to this post in July/August with some more detailed admissions data for the 2023-2024 cycle.